My overarching interests relate to the use--and limitations--of
computer models to inform or implement environmental policy. I am
particularly interested in ways to incorporate uncertainty and scenario
analysis into transportation fuels policy.
Much of my work has involved Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of biofuels, using
both the standard "attributional" approach, and techniques to estimate
market-mediated effects such as biofuel-induced indirect land use
change and price effects in global petroleum markets.
Fuel regulations and certification standards are sprouting up
worldwide that plan to measure and regulate the climate effects of
transportation fuels using a life cycle approach. A better
understanding of the uncertainties--and therefore the limits in our
abilities to distinguish meaningfully between alternatives--will
provide a basis for improved policy design.
My PhD dissertation
examined the uncertainties inherent in the LCA of transportation
fuels, and considered the implications of these uncertainties on
I recently co-developed an emission factor model for use with the GTAP economic
computable general equilibrium model to estimate emissions from biofuel-induced
land use change. I am currently developing a stochastic version of this model
for use in a Monte Carlo simulation involving both GTAP and the emission factor
model to estimate the (parametric) uncertainty in ILUC emissions.
With colleagues in the Goldman School for Public Policy and at UC Davis, I
am examining possible GHG effects of a low-carbon fuel standard given scenario
uncertainty affecting compliance strategies and parametric and model uncertainty
in our estimates of actual net global GHG emissions from these strategies.
PhD (2010), Energy and Resources Group, UC Berkeley
MS (2006), Energy and Resources Group, UC Berkeley
MS (1982), Computer Science, Yale University
BS (1981), Computer Science and Applied Mathematics, SUNY Albany
National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellow (2006-2009)
I was a software engineer in my first career, working on Wall Street
in the eighties, in Silicon Valley in the early nineties, and in the
non-profit sector in the late nineties through 2003.
I started at ERG in 2004, focusing on sustainable uses of bioenergy.